{"id":12704,"date":"2017-11-29T09:50:31","date_gmt":"2017-11-29T01:50:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.99.co\/blog\/singapore\/?p=12704"},"modified":"2022-07-01T04:10:25","modified_gmt":"2022-06-30T20:10:25","slug":"en-bloc-property-prices-rise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.99.co\/singapore\/insider\/en-bloc-property-prices-rise\/","title":{"rendered":"Why the en bloc fever may lead to a rise in property prices"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"bsf_rt_marker\"><\/div><p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-12709\" src=\"https:\/\/www.99.co\/singapore\/insider\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/en-bloc-property-prices-rise.jpg\" alt=\"en bloc property prices rise\" width=\"720\" height=\"540\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.99.co\/singapore\/insider\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/en-bloc-property-prices-rise.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/www.99.co\/singapore\/insider\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/en-bloc-property-prices-rise-380x284.jpg 380w, https:\/\/www.99.co\/singapore\/insider\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/en-bloc-property-prices-rise-940x705.jpg 940w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">National Development Minister Lawrence Wong has <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.channelnewsasia.com\/news\/business\/en-bloc-sales-may-not-mean-higher-prices-lawrence-wong-9378352\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">pointed out that<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, due to factors such as the Additional Buyer&#8217;s Stamp Duty for developers &#8211; property prices may not edge up even with the on-going en bloc fever. While there are still factors that keep property prices down, not least the winding down of the oversupply situation from 2013, buyers should still be wary. There are still many reasons why prices can go up, sooner than expected.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>What is keeping prices down?<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">At present, the twin effect of loan curbs (the Total Debt Servicing Ratio) and the Additional Buyer\u2019s Stamp Duty (ABSD) is still holding property prices down. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Regarding the ABSD, we refer to both buyers as well as developers. Buyers are dissuaded from purchasing investment properties (even Singapore citizens pay a hefty seven per cent of the property price, for a second house). At the same time, developers have only five years to complete and sell all units in a development, or risk a multi-million-dollar ABSD tax. This pushes developers to keep costs manageable, as brisk sales are a must. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Another contributing factor, which has been hanging over the market like a cloud of gloom since 2013, is oversupply. While it\u2019s fallen over the past four years, there\u2019s still a general notion that we have \u201cmore than enough\u201d housing, with loads more to come onto the market (when the en bloc sites have been redeveloped). <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">These factors are often used to claim that, despite the wave of en bloc sales with aggressive bids, property prices probably won\u2019t rise.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>But we may be underestimating the impact of the en bloc fever<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The slew of en bloc sales have introduced potent counterbalancing forces, which <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">do <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">have the potential to cause price hikes despite the aforementioned factors. Some things to note are:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Significantly higher bids by developers <\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Rising development charges across the board<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The spillover effect from new to old properties<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We also need to address the fact that the oversupply situation is difficult to quantify, and may be drawing to a close.<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>\n<h3><b> Significantly higher bids by developers <\/b><\/h3>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Developers are paying around 29 per cent more land, as compared to 2012. And while we\u2019d love to say that\u2019s because of huge confidence in the property market, it\u2019s not quite the case.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It\u2019s simply the result of a huge influx of foreign developers, <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.scmp.com\/week-asia\/business\/article\/2105294\/targeting-singapores-property-market-chinese-developers-leave\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">particularly from China<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. So far this year, winning bids by these foreign developers have averaged 4.8 per cent higher than the next bidder. By comparison, winning bids by local firms average just 2.5 per cent higher than the next bidder. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Note that the record-breaking bid had this year (the highest in our history) was the <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.straitstimes.com\/business\/stirling-road-land-parcel-draws-top-bid-of-more-than-s1-billion\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">billion-dollar Stirling Road plot<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. It was won by two Chinese developers, Logan Property and the Nanshan Group. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Chinese developers have good reason for doing this. They\u2019re currently moving out of China due to government curbs back home, and a growing fear of yuan depreciation. What we\u2019re experiencing isn\u2019t unique to Singapore \u2013 the great Chinese exodus has also impacted countries such as <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.news.com.au\/theaustralian\/subscribe?pkgDef=TA_SDO_P0415A_W04&amp;directSubscribe=true&amp;b=true&amp;sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a_GGL&amp;mode=premium&amp;dest=http:\/\/www.theaustralian.com.au\/business\/property\/chinese-developers-shift-to-focus-on-land-plays\/news-story\/361fdbc5edbd6858bee3ba5c1f63154d?nk=2157018bf737586472a96b248d56361f-1511424880&amp;memtype=anonymous\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Australia<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Their motives aside, aggressive bidding by foreign firms forces <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">all <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">developers \u2013 local or foreign \u2013 to pay more for the land they want. And at some point, the 29 per cent premium on land prices must be paid by <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">someone. <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It either comes in the form of smaller units, or a higher price tag. <\/span><\/p>\n<ol start=\"2\">\n<li>\n<h3><b> Rising Development Charges across the board<\/b><\/h3>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Development Charges (DC) are levied on developers, as a tax for projects that increase land value (that invariably includes demolishing old properties to build a new one). You can check out the formula for DCs <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ura.gov.sg\/uol\/guidelines\/development-control\/development-charge\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">here<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">DCs are reviewed every six months, and the last round raised some eyebrows. We saw the biggest DC hikes since 2007, with rates rising 13.8 per cent on average. The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) divides Singapore into 118 sectors when determining DCs; this last review, 116 of them saw increased prices.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The increases ranged from six per cent to 29 per cent, with the highest increases being at Tampines Road, Hougang, Punggol, and Sengkang.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It\u2019s not a coincidence that DCs are rising with the en bloc fever; in fact, they may even be an attempt to cool said fever.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Again though, higher DC charges must be borne by <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">someone<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Developers, who are already faced with higher land prices and thinner margins, are inclined to transfer the costs right to the buyers.<\/span><\/p>\n<ol start=\"3\">\n<li>\n<h3><b> The spillover effect from new to old properties<\/b><\/h3>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">New properties and old ones have divergent prices \u2013 that doesn\u2019t change the fact that prices of the two moves in tandem. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">If the prices of new properties rise, perhaps due to DCs and aggressive land bids, it\u2019s only a matter of time before older properties see their prices go up as well; and the en-bloc fever just adds fuel to this particular fire.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>We also must consider if over-supply is still a continuing factor<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As Minister Lawrence Wong himself points out, the supply of housing has shrunk. There are 17,200 up for grabs in Q3 2017, down from 40,000 in 2012. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As for BTO flats, we can\u2019t be sure that the abundance of new flats will affect Singapore\u2019s private housing market. Many buyers of private housing either can\u2019t or won\u2019t buy BTO flats anyway.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In short, we don\u2019t know if the oversupply \u2013 which we\u2019ve been harping about since 2013 \u2013 will be there much longer to contain prices.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Home buyers would do well to avoid assumptions, such as the impossibility of property prices rising again.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Interested to read more about en bloc articles? Check out our pieces on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.99.co\/singapore\/insider\/en-bloc-sales\/\">en bloc sales for dummies<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.99.co\/singapore\/insider\/hidden-cost-en-bloc-fever\/\">the hidden cost of en bloc fever<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>National Development Minister Lawrence Wong has pointed out that, due to factors such as the Additional Buyer&#8217;s Stamp Duty for developers &#8211; property prices may not edge up even with the on-going en bloc fever. While there are still factors that keep property prices down, not least the winding down of the oversupply situation from&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":54952,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_relevanssi_hide_post":"","_relevanssi_hide_content":"","_relevanssi_pin_for_all":"","_relevanssi_pin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_unpin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_include_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_exclude_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_no_append":"","_relevanssi_related_not_related":"","_relevanssi_related_posts":"","_relevanssi_noindex_reason":"","_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[53593,57131],"tags":[],"persona":[],"class_list":{"2":"type-post","9":"entry","10":"has-post-thumbnail"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- 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