{"id":19726,"date":"2018-09-04T20:51:31","date_gmt":"2018-09-04T12:51:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.99.co\/blog\/singapore\/?p=19726"},"modified":"2022-07-01T04:59:50","modified_gmt":"2022-06-30T20:59:50","slug":"hdb-flat-appreciate-after-50-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.99.co\/singapore\/insider\/hdb-flat-appreciate-after-50-years\/","title":{"rendered":"Can your HDB flat really appreciate after it&#8217;s 50 years old?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"bsf_rt_marker\"><\/div><p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Recently, Minister Khaw Boon Wan remarked that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.straitstimes.com\/singapore\/housing\/price-of-50-year-old-hdb-flat-can-appreciate-over-the-next-10-years-khaw-boon-wan\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a 50-year-old HDB flat can still appreciate for the next 10 years<\/a>. <strong>He\u2019s absolutely right of course; it <\/strong><\/span><strong><i>can <\/i>happen, just like how it&#8217;s entirely possible you\u00a0<i>can <\/i><\/strong><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>strike TOTO with that next ticket you buy.<\/strong> The problem with Minister Khaw&#8217;s statement is the amount of speculation or presumption it involves. With his words causing a stir among Singaporeans, we feel the need to weigh on the issue of whether a 99-year leasehold flat can actually appreciate in value after half its tenure has elapsed, and offer some urgently-needed clarity for buyers and owners alike.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_19728\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-19728\" style=\"width: 720px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-19728\" src=\"https:\/\/www.99.co\/singapore\/insider\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/Singapore-all-lease.jpg\" alt=\"HDB flats appreciate lease Singapore\" width=\"720\" height=\"536\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-19728\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: HDB, 99.co<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">According to the chart above, there has clearly been at least some 50-year-old (or older) flats that have undergone appreciation by virtue of having higher market price that it did at any point in time about a decade ago. If Minister Khaw truly believes what he said about 50-year-old flats, he must&#8217;ve taken this trend at face-value and extrapolated it forward in time, which isn&#8217;t a very scientific thing to do.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That said, value appreciation for older HDB flats isn&#8217;t far fetched in some cases, case in point being the revitalised <a href=\"https:\/\/www.99.co\/singapore\/sale?is_new_launch=false&amp;listing_type=sale&amp;main_category=hdb&amp;map_bounds=1.5827095153768858%2C103.49449749970108%2C1.1090706240313446%2C104.12483807587296&amp;name=Tiong%20Bahru&amp;page_num=1&amp;page_size=30&amp;property_segments=residential&amp;query_coords=1.283878863882543%2C103.83139242611337&amp;query_ids=sztiong_bahru&amp;query_limit=radius&amp;query_type=subzone&amp;radius_max=1000&amp;rental_type=unit&amp;show_future_mrts=true&amp;sub_categories=hdb_2r%2Chdb_3r%2Chdb_4r%2Chdb_5r%2Chdb_executive&amp;zoom=15\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Tiong Bahru neighbourhood<\/a> and, to a lesser extent, older flats elsewhere having had new transport infrastructure (e.g. MRT stations) and key amenities (e.g shopping malls, markets, and hawker centres) built. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But there are a number of other factors that cause a flat&#8217;s value to rise without it being <em>true<\/em> appreciation. The thing that comes to mind first is inflation; inflation that causes the price of a property to increase is <em>not<\/em><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0real value (but your financial adviser nags you enough that you understand that by now, right?)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Aside from inflation, <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">there are a number of unstated things you should be aware of when the word &#8220;appreciation&#8221; is being bundled around:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Don\u2019t conflate \u201ccan appreciate\u201d with \u201cwill appreciate\u201d<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The issue isn\u2019t just whether an ageing flat appreciates; the issue is how much it appreciates<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We shouldn\u2019t be too optimistic about the potential buyers<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It\u2019s not about HIP II and VERS, it\u2019s about how your neighbourhood develops<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The same government is also discouraging you from buying old flats at high prices<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ol>\n<li>\n<h3><b> Don\u2019t conflate \u201ccan appreciate\u201d with \u201cwill appreciate\u201d<\/b><\/h3>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Minister Khaw Boon Wan said that HDB flats <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">can <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">still appreciate when they are 50 years or older. The functional word is \u201ccan\u201d. The Minister never claimed that your flat <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">will <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">appreciate, because no one can predict that.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>We\u2019ve seen the same semantics used to sell houses many times.<\/strong> It\u2019s very easy to tell a buyer that a property \u2013 <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">any property<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> \u2013 \u201ccan\u201d appreciate. We can point to a zinc shack at Lim Chu Kang Cemetery and state that it <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">can <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">appreciate over the next 10 years (hey, it <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">can <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">happen, just as you <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">can <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">strike TOTO this week).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The statement is vague and far from a guarantee; it shouldn\u2019t be counted on for your long-term financial planning. Don\u2019t assume you can count on selling the flat and buying a new one on the proceeds, just because someone claims it <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">can <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">appreciate. And certainly don\u2019t buy an ageing flat because of blind confidence in the statement.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>And if you&#8217;re someone that believes in the truth of a statement because you trust in the authority or position of the person saying it, you&#8217;re effectively committing a common logical fallacy called <em>Appeal to Authority<\/em>. This is how many people get burnt in the stock market, by listening to experts with seemingly the right track record and credentials, in the process forgoing\/disregarding their own need for due diligence and capacity of thought.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Back to appreciation: In fact, we\u2019ll add a \u201ccan\u201d statement of our own, to counterbalance the one in the media:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Your flat <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">can <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">also\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">depreciate significantly after its 50 years old. <\/span><\/p>\n<ol start=\"2\">\n<li>\n<h3><b> The issue isn\u2019t just whether an ageing flat appreciates, the issue is how much it appreciates<\/b><\/h3>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The main worry with leases running out is that sometimes the residents won\u2019t be able to afford a new home on the proceeds of the old one. Given that simple economics dictate that the fewer the years of lease left, the lower the intrinsic value, HDB flat owners fearful that they might end up with nothing are hoping that intervening factors trigger the appreciation of their unit, enough to give them sufficient proceeds to leapfrog to an acceptable new home. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The government has announced, without going into detail, that they intend to introduce an intervening factor called Voluntary Early Redevelopment Scheme, or VERS, which could let owners collectively sell their flat back to the government when there&#8217;s less than 30 years of lease remaining (see graphic below).<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_19369\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-19369\" style=\"width: 600px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-19369\" src=\"https:\/\/www.99.co\/singapore\/insider\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/national-day-rally-2018-hdb-resale-sers-vers.jpg\" alt=\"National Day Rally 2018 HDB resale SERS VERS\" width=\"600\" height=\"591\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-19369\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">An outline of the proposed VERS scheme. Credits: HDB<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While VERS sounds good on paper, a better assurance from authorities would&#8217;ve been a statement that the proceeds from VERS will always be sufficient for owners to get a replacement flat (albeit a smaller one) in the market at the time, regardless of how much or how little their ageing flat appreciates. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(Also, see point 5 about this issue. There\u2019s some contradiction in the direction being set.)<\/span><\/p>\n<ol start=\"3\">\n<li>\n<h3><b> We shouldn\u2019t be too optimistic about the potential buyers<\/b><\/h3>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As Minister Khaw himself has mentioned, we don\u2019t know when exactly the value of an ageing flat will suddenly plummet. But when it does, it happens <em>fast<\/em>. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We agree with the Minister\u2019s statement that the flat can still appreciate for around a decade after its 50<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">th<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> year mark; our guess is that a sharp plummet happens when a property\u2019s around 65 to 70 years of age. This is when buyers can no longer use their CPF to buy the flat, and banks generally won\u2019t give out loans.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(We know the government has promised that there would be a second round of upgrading at the 60-year mark for flats; but we\u2019re pretty sure that, groundbreaking changes aside, a new coat of paint won\u2019t convince prospective buyers to magically part with more cash.)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The real issue here is, there aren\u2019t many buyers who are happy to give you a high price when they know they\u2019re buying an asset that will be worth zero in a few decades. Any buyer who tries to buy when a flat is 55 years old knows two things:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">They\u2019re probably never going to be able to recoup their cost, and<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">They can probably bargain you down to a rock bottom price, as you don\u2019t have many alternative buyers <\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ol start=\"4\">\n<li>\n<h3><b> It\u2019s not about HIP II and VERS, it\u2019s about how your neighbourhood develops<\/b><\/h3>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Not every neighbourhood is Tiong Bahru. Not all of us will see a wave of hipster cafes move in to revitalise the area, or a ton of new malls opening up nearby. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The main factors that prop up your flats value are its surroundings &#8212; from the presence of transport nodes, to the opening of malls, parks, eateries, and so forth. Contrary to what the government is saying, HIP II and VERS are going to only play a supporting role, at best, in the appreciation of an older flat.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>If your neighbourhood loses it vibrance, then no amount of repainting your block or VERS discussions is going to help your flat appreciate.\u00a0<\/strong>We feel that the latest announcement by HDB to have <a href=\"https:\/\/www.channelnewsasia.com\/news\/singapore\/hdb-town-design-guides-woodlands-10681988\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">design themes and guides for each town<\/a> is an attempt to inject intangible value that will differentiate each estate in the eyes of buyers.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">More importantly, pay attention to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.99.co\/singapore\/insider\/ura-master-plan\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) Master Plan<\/a> before you buy or retain an old flat. That\u2019s where your focus should be while you tune out the noise about HIP II and VERS.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>[<em>Recommended article<\/em>:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.99.co\/singapore\/insider\/national-day-rally-2018-hdb-resale\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">National Day Rally 2018: Will new schemes save HDB flat owners?<\/a>]<\/p>\n<ol start=\"5\">\n<li>\n<h3><b> The same government is also discouraging you from buying old flats at high prices<\/b><\/h3>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We\u2019ve been told we shouldn\u2019t buy old flats at too high a price, because SERS is not guaranteed. That was\u00a0<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.straitstimes.com\/singapore\/housing\/dont-assume-all-old-hdb-flats-will-become-eligible-for-sers-cautions-lawrence-wong\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">the warning<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> that Minister Lawrence Wong gave us.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">And with VERS now announced, it affirms the statement that SERS <em>won\u2019t<\/em> happen to most HDB flats.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>But there\u2019s an inherent dilemma here. How can we be confident that old HDB flats can still appreciate, while we\u2019re cautioning people against buying them at high prices at the same time? <\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Are we supposed to listen to Minister Wong and avoid buying old flats at high prices, <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">while <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">also believing Minister Khaw that old flats can appreciate between their 50 to 60-year mark? <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The government supposedly looks out for us and props up the value of our ageing flats through initiatives like HIP II. But last we checked, telling people not to pay too much for ageing flats is something that <em>opposes<\/em> the notion of\u00a0<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">propping up the value of said flats.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3>So here\u2019s the head-scratching message to take away from all this:<\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Your flat can<\/span> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">appreciate between 50 to 60 years (although no one guarantees it), because there will somehow be interested buyers after we\u2019ve convinced buyers not to spend on old flats. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">You just need to believe.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-19736\" src=\"https:\/\/www.99.co\/singapore\/insider\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/hdb-flat-appreciation-believe.jpg\" alt=\"HDB flat appreciation believe\" width=\"720\" height=\"405\" \/><\/p>\n<p><em>Can an old HDB flat appreciate in value? Voice your thoughts in the comments section or on\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/groups\/yourpropertycommunity\/\">our Facebook community page<\/a><\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>If you liked this article, 99.co recommends\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.99.co\/singapore\/insider\/99-year-hdb-lease\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Flat owners: What you must do before your 99-year HDB lease runs down<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.99.co\/singapore\/insider\/singaporean-homeowners-buying-property\/\">7 things Singaporean homeowners wish they knew before buying property<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Looking for a property? Find the home of your dreams today at Singapore\u2019s largest <a href=\"https:\/\/www.99.co\/?utm_source=blog%20main%20site%20conversion\">property portal 99.co<\/a>!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Recently, Minister Khaw Boon Wan remarked that a 50-year-old HDB flat can still appreciate for the next 10 years. He\u2019s absolutely right of course; it can happen, just like how it&#8217;s entirely possible you\u00a0can strike TOTO with that next ticket you buy. The problem with Minister Khaw&#8217;s statement is the amount of speculation or presumption&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":55290,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_relevanssi_hide_post":"","_relevanssi_hide_content":"","_relevanssi_pin_for_all":"","_relevanssi_pin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_unpin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_include_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_exclude_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_no_append":"","_relevanssi_related_not_related":"","_relevanssi_related_posts":"","_relevanssi_noindex_reason":"","_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[53631,53632,57131],"tags":[54098,53636,54521,53933,55034],"persona":[],"class_list":{"2":"type-post","15":"entry","16":"has-post-thumbnail"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.7.1 (Yoast SEO v25.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Can your HDB flat really appreciate after it&#039;s 50 years old? - 99.co<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Minister Khaw Boon Wan recently remarked that a 50-year-old HDB flat can still appreciate for the next 10 years. 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Here&#039;s some much needed clarity.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.99.co\/singapore\/insider\/hdb-flat-appreciate-after-50-years\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/99dotco\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2018-09-04T12:51:31+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-06-30T20:59:50+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.99.co\/singapore\/insider\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/hdb-flat-old-appreciate-value.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"720\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"482\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Ryan Ong\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@99dotco\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@99dotco\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Ryan Ong\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"8 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.99.co\/singapore\/insider\/hdb-flat-appreciate-after-50-years\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.99.co\/singapore\/insider\/hdb-flat-appreciate-after-50-years\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Ryan Ong\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.99.co\/singapore\/insider\/#\/schema\/person\/4ad00425f4de904205396b4c8b79f2a4\"},\"headline\":\"Can your HDB flat really appreciate after it&#8217;s 50 years old?\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-09-04T12:51:31+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-06-30T20:59:50+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.99.co\/singapore\/insider\/hdb-flat-appreciate-after-50-years\/\"},\"wordCount\":1630,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.99.co\/singapore\/insider\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.99.co\/singapore\/insider\/hdb-flat-appreciate-after-50-years\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.99.co\/singapore\/insider\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/hdb-flat-old-appreciate-value.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"99 year leasehold\",\"hdb\",\"HIP\",\"property appreciation\",\"VERS\"],\"articleSection\":[\"HDB\",\"HDB Stories &amp; Insights\",\"Property News\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.99.co\/singapore\/insider\/hdb-flat-appreciate-after-50-years\/#respond\"]}],\"copyrightYear\":\"2018\",\"copyrightHolder\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.99.co\/singapore\/insider\/#organization\"}},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.99.co\/singapore\/insider\/hdb-flat-appreciate-after-50-years\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.99.co\/singapore\/insider\/hdb-flat-appreciate-after-50-years\/\",\"name\":\"Can your HDB flat really appreciate after it's 50 years old? - 99.co\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.99.co\/singapore\/insider\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.99.co\/singapore\/insider\/hdb-flat-appreciate-after-50-years\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.99.co\/singapore\/insider\/hdb-flat-appreciate-after-50-years\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.99.co\/singapore\/insider\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/07\/hdb-flat-old-appreciate-value.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2018-09-04T12:51:31+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-06-30T20:59:50+00:00\",\"description\":\"Minister Khaw Boon Wan recently remarked that a 50-year-old HDB flat can still appreciate for the next 10 years. He\u2019s absolutely right of course; it can happen, just like how you it's entirely possible that you\u00a0can strike lottery. 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