{"id":32681,"date":"2020-04-16T20:14:00","date_gmt":"2020-04-16T12:14:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.99.co\/blog\/singapore\/?p=32681"},"modified":"2022-06-13T17:25:01","modified_gmt":"2022-06-13T09:25:01","slug":"analysis-truth-condo-sales-volume-march-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.99.co\/singapore\/insider\/analysis-truth-condo-sales-volume-march-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"The truth behind “declining” condo sales volume in March 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"
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According to figures released by the Urban Development Authority (URA) on 15 April 2020,<\/strong> a total of 660 new private homes (excluding executive condos) were sold in March 2020. This is down 32.4% from the 976 condo units sold in February 2020, and down 37% from the 1,054 condo units sold in the same month last year (i.e. March 2019).<\/p>\n

Looking at these numbers, you’d be forgiven that that the Singapore condo market has well and truly entered the dark ages. But we dived deeper into the data to see whether the fall in March 2020 transaction volume deserves more pessimism, or chill<\/em>.<\/p>\n

The first thing you must remember when reading about new condo sales statistics for property is that launches distort numbers<\/strong>. This is because the launch weekend of a project usually sees a disproportionate number of buyers vying for the best units from that project, be it the lowest priced units or those with the best facing and layout.<\/p>\n

In general, the bigger sized the project, the higher the spike that project’s launch will contribute to sales volume.<\/p>\n

Back in March 2019, seven condominiums debuted, including the mega 1,410-unit The Florence Residences and the ultra-mega 2,203-unit Treasure at Tampines.<\/strong> The URA captured 45 and 255 transactions for The Florence Residences<\/a> and Treasure at Tampines<\/a> over their launch weekends respectively.<\/p>\n

Constrast that to March 2020, when four condos debuted (excluding OLA<\/a>, an executive condominium). Not only do the four condos have just 562 units combined, the actual number of units that were actually released was even lower as Kopar at Newton<\/a> (378 units) had to scrap the usual launch weekend for appointment-only bookings, due to the implementation of Covid-19 safe distancing measures.<\/p>\n

The truth behind condo sales volumes in March 2020<\/h2>\n

So, in order to get an accurate picture of new home sales volumes in a particular month, it would be far more accurate to take projects that were launched in the same month and the month prior out of consideration<\/em>. And this is what we did when we analysed condo sales volumes in March 2019 and March 2020:<\/p>\n

\"march<\/p>\n

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In the respective charts, omitting transactions from recent launches (i.e. February and March for 2019 and 2020) reveals a surprising truth: The number of new condo sales in the four weeks of March 2020 (560 units) is actually about 32% HIGHER than the sales in March 2019 (423 units).<\/strong><\/p>\n

So, can we still say for sure than March 2020 was a really bad month for property sales?<\/p>\n

To answer that, let’s see what else the charts tell us:<\/strong><\/h2>\n