{"id":4236,"date":"2016-01-26T06:00:59","date_gmt":"2016-01-25T22:00:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.99.co\/blog\/singapore\/?p=4236"},"modified":"2022-07-01T03:59:51","modified_gmt":"2022-06-30T19:59:51","slug":"with-home-loan-rates-inching-up-should-singaporeans-panic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.99.co\/singapore\/insider\/with-home-loan-rates-inching-up-should-singaporeans-panic\/","title":{"rendered":"With Home Loan Rates Inching Up &#8211; Should Singaporeans Panic?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"bsf_rt_marker\"><\/div><p>Ever heard of the Butterfly Effect? It is a great metaphor to describe small but potentially scary and impactful events. It goes something like his: very small causes (the flapping of a butterfly&#8217;s wings), may make for immense, and world-changing effects such as a tornado.<\/p>\n<p>Our friends over at Moneysmart have witnessed a butterfly flapping its wings around, and have come up with an analysis of what might be coming next. \u00a0That is, DBS has raised its fixed deposit loan rate or\u00a0<a title=\"DBS Home Loans \u2013 The Fixed Deposit Home Rate (FHR) and Why It\u2019s So Different From Other Home Loans\" href=\"http:\/\/blog.moneysmart.sg\/home-loans\/dbs-home-loan-fhr-singapore-fixed-deposit-home-rate\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">DBS FHR<\/a> from 0.5% to 0.6% a few weeks ago. This may be nothing, but it may just be something &#8211; and I am\u00a0 beginning to wonder whether\u00a0Singaporeans should be concerned?<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Why has the DBS FHR gone up? And why now?<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>It\u2019s strange how something that happens across the Pacific Ocean can have such a strong impact on our shores here. No, I\u2019m not talking about the billion-dollar film that is Star Wars: The Force Awakens, but rather about the Federal Funds Rate. This interest rate has spent several years near 0%, as you can see from the chart below, but has only last month been allowed to go past 0.25%. By the end of this year, it\u2019s <a title=\"The Fed Has Finally Increased Interest Rates \u2013 What Does This Mean For Singaporean Homeowners?\" href=\"http:\/\/blog.moneysmart.sg\/home-loans\/fed-increase-interest-rate-singaporean-homeowners-refinancing\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">predicted to rise to about 1.4%<\/a>, which would bring it close to what it was in 2009.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/d1ezz44i5vacye.cloudfront.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/18\/2016\/01\/Fed-Interest-Rate.png?8e34e1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" class=\"img-link media-img img-link media-img\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-30622\" src=\"https:\/\/d1ezz44i5vacye.cloudfront.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/18\/2016\/01\/Fed-Interest-Rate.png?8e34e1\" alt=\"federal funds interest rate\" width=\"603\" height=\"341\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>This rise in the Fed interest rate has already affected the Singapore Interbank Offered Rate, better known as SIBOR. This is the interest rate used by banks to lend unsecured funds to other banks in Singapore. It\u2019s also been one of the more popular methods for banks to determine their home loan interest rates. We\u2019ve mentioned in a couple of articles in the past that the <a title=\"Interview with SingCapital CEO \u2013 Should You Still Get a SIBOR-based Home Loan?\" href=\"http:\/\/blog.moneysmart.sg\/home-loans\/interview-with-singcapital-ceo-should-you-still-get-a-sibor-based-home-loan\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">SIBOR is closely connected to the Fed interest rate<\/a>, and how an <a title=\"What Singaporeans Can Do About Their Home Loan If the SIBOR Heads For the Moon\" href=\"http:\/\/blog.moneysmart.sg\/home-loans\/what-singaporeans-can-do-about-their-home-loan-if-the-sibor-heads-for-the-moon\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">increase in the Fed interest rate would mean an increase in the SIBOR<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>In fact, just like a kiasu Singaporean, the SIBOR has already started its climb up last year, even before the official announcement of the Fed interest rate hike. It went from 0.45% at the beginning of 2015 and is currently at 1.19%.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>But what has all this got to do with the DBS FHR? You haven\u2019t mentioned that yet<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>The SIBOR is not the only interest rate that is influenced by the Fed interest rate. It\u2019s clear that fixed deposit rates in Singapore also rise and fall according to the Fed interest rate. This isn\u2019t surprising \u2013 to maintain strong deposits in Singapore, banks need to make sure their rates are competitive. Why? So that people will deposit their money here and not take them to other countries.<\/p>\n<p>However, what is more interesting is exactly how the two rates are connected. In the chart below, you can see the relationship between the US Fed interest rate and Singapore\u2019s fixed deposit rates.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/d1ezz44i5vacye.cloudfront.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/18\/2016\/01\/Fed-Rate-vs-Fixed-D-Rate.jpg?8e34e1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" class=\"img-link media-img img-link media-img\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-30623\" src=\"https:\/\/d1ezz44i5vacye.cloudfront.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/18\/2016\/01\/Fed-Rate-vs-Fixed-D-Rate.jpg?8e34e1\" alt=\"fed rate fixed deposit interest rate\" width=\"976\" height=\"692\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>The fixed deposit rate data from the chart shows the average rates quoted by 10 leading banks and finance companies, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/secure.mas.gov.sg\/msb\/InterestRatesOfBanksAndFinanceCompanies.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">MAS<\/a>. It should be noted that the fixed deposit rate for 3-months, 6-months and 12-months all follow a similar trend.<\/p>\n<p>As you can see from the charts, the Fed interest rate not only influences how fixed deposit rates are adjusted, but is able to predict them. As the Fed rate increased from 2005 to 2007, fixed deposit interest rates rose sharply in response. Conversely, as the Fed rate plummeted from 2007 onwards, fixed deposit interest rates dropped gradually as well.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>Ah, okay, I think I can see where you\u2019re going with this\u2026 the increase in the DBS FHR is just the beginning\u2026<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>That\u2019s right. The DBS FHR is currently pegged to DBS\u2019 18-month Fixed Deposit rates. While that rate history is technically not on the graph above, it\u2019s a safe bet to presume that it follows a similar trend. This means that we can expect DBS\u2019s raising of their 18-month fixed deposit interest rate from 0.5% to 0.6% to just be the first step in its journey up.<\/p>\n<h3><strong>So should homeowners who are currently on a fixed deposit linked home loan package be worried?<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>So with the FD rates going up and the SIBOR going up, it may seem like a disaster either way. Is the solution now to move to a fixed rate package? The important thing is to put things in perspective.<\/p>\n<h4>1. Fixed Deposit rates are generally more predictable than the SIBOR<\/h4>\n<p>A fixed deposit rate is always going to be less volatile than the SIBOR. Remember that even before the Fed rate increased last month, the SIBOR was already shooting up since the beginning of 2015. While fixed deposit rates will increase, they will probably never increase as quickly as the SIBOR.<\/p>\n<p>Why? Because ultimately fixed deposit interest rates also represent a cost to the bank. When someone puts money into a fixed deposit account, the interest is how much the bank needs to pay their customers. As a result, it\u2019s less likely that they\u2019ll increase fixed deposit rates sharply. Think about it this way, do you ever remember a time when the fixed deposit interest rate was more than 2%? No? Neither can I. But can you remember a time when the SIBOR was above 2%? Yes \u2013 any time before 2008.<\/p>\n<h4>2. Fixed home loan rates aren\u2019t necessarily the solution either<\/h4>\n<p>Fixed rates usually increase when floating rates increase. 99% of the time, a fixed rate will cost you a little bit more than a floating rate. After all, you are paying for the security of a good night\u2019s rest knowing that your home loan interest rate will not spike overnight. However, it\u2019s important to note that even fixed deposit rates don\u2019t last forever.<\/p>\n<p>They eventually become floating rates after a certain period of time. Which means that although you\u2019re paying more for security now, it\u2019s only temporary.<\/p>\n<h4>3. Home loans pegged to Fixed Deposit interest rates are no longer the monopoly of DBS anymore<\/h4>\n<p>When a market becomes competitive, it is always the consumer that benefits. When OCBC introduced their version of the FHR, known as the <a title=\"OCBC Has Got a New Home Loan Package \u2013 Here\u2019s Why the DBS FHR Should Be Worried\" href=\"http:\/\/blog.moneysmart.sg\/home-loans\/ocbc-has-got-a-new-home-loan-package-heres-why-the-dbs-fhr-should-be-worried\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">OCBC 36FDMR<\/a> this year, it meant competition for the DBS FHR. So far, OCBC has not changed their interest rate yet, and they probably won\u2019t, in an attempt to capture more market share in the coming months. Of course, we can\u2019t say this for sure, since none of us sits on the OCBC Board of Directors. But logically speaking, it doesn\u2019t make sense to enter the market without maintaining a competitive advantage.<\/p>\n<p>Should UOB or any other bank also follow the trend of starting fixed deposit linked home loans, then there\u2019ll be even more pressure on DBS and OCBC to remain competitive.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ever heard of the Butterfly Effect? It is a great metaphor to describe small but potentially scary and impactful events. It goes something like his: very small causes (the flapping of a butterfly&#8217;s wings), may make for immense, and world-changing effects such as a tornado. Our friends over at Moneysmart have witnessed a butterfly flapping&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":54137,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_relevanssi_hide_post":"","_relevanssi_hide_content":"","_relevanssi_pin_for_all":"","_relevanssi_pin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_unpin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_include_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_exclude_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_no_append":"","_relevanssi_related_not_related":"","_relevanssi_related_posts":"","_relevanssi_noindex_reason":"","_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[53593,57131],"tags":[],"persona":[],"class_list":{"2":"type-post","9":"entry","10":"has-post-thumbnail"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v25.7.1 (Yoast SEO v25.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>With Home Loan Rates Inching Up - Should Singaporeans Panic?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"For the first time in years DBS has substantially hiked its fixed deposit home loan. 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