{"id":7896,"date":"2016-12-02T02:53:08","date_gmt":"2016-12-01T18:53:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.99.co\/blog\/singapore\/?p=7896"},"modified":"2022-07-01T04:05:17","modified_gmt":"2022-06-30T20:05:17","slug":"johor-forest-city","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.99.co\/singapore\/insider\/johor-forest-city\/","title":{"rendered":"Johor&#8217;s invasion of Chinese buyers (and what it means for Singapore)"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"bsf_rt_marker\"><\/div><figure id=\"attachment_7897\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-7897\" style=\"width: 800px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-7897\" src=\"https:\/\/www.99.co\/singapore\/insider\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/Screen-Shot-2016-12-02-at-10.51.59-AM.png\" alt=\"Forest City is an upcoming project from Chinese developers, just located off the shores of Singapore\" width=\"800\" height=\"465\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.99.co\/singapore\/insider\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/Screen-Shot-2016-12-02-at-10.51.59-AM.png 954w, https:\/\/www.99.co\/singapore\/insider\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/Screen-Shot-2016-12-02-at-10.51.59-AM-940x547.png 940w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-7897\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Forest City is an upcoming project from Chinese developers, just located off the shores of Singapore<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Country Garden Holdings Co. is the developer behind Forest City. If you don&#8217;t know what that is, it&#8217;s a <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/features\/2016-11-21\/-100-billion-chinese-made-city-near-singapore-scares-the-hell-out-of-everybody\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">monstrous housing project<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> that holds around 700,000 people, and is built on four interconnecting islands between Singapore and Johor. This is on the prediction that Johor will be &#8220;the next Shenzhen&#8221;. <\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>What does Forest City mean for Singapore?<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Although it&#8217;s a bit early to say, we can provide some reasonable assumptions about Forest City&#8217;s impact, if all goes according to plan. We know, for example, that besides 700,000 residential units there will also be a lot of commercial and retail space. And at the opening ceremony, Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak declared the area a duty-free zone, along with corporate tax incentives for select industries (tourism and healthcare were mentioned). <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Here&#8217;s what we think the likely impact will be on us:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Singaporean investors in Iskandar might be in trouble<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We might stand to benefit from an influx of Chinese tourism<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Likewise, this means bigger crowds of Chinese tourists<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Possible ecological havoc<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Singaporean investors in Iskandar might be in trouble<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">700,000 homes! Johor had better watch out. If all those units are filled by Chinese buyers, that&#8217;s probably enough for them to secede and declare independence*.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">(*I&#8217;m just joking. China <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">would never<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> go around stealing islands in South East Asia). <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It doesn&#8217;t take a genius to realise that Iskandar, already threatened with an oversupply of properties, is now in an even worse position. Iskandar was facing a supply issue as far back as mid-2014, when it was noted that developers were putting up buildings faster than a Korean gamer in a StarCraft tournament. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">At the time, we kept chanting that &#8220;spillover demand from Singapore and a low ringgit will make it okay&#8221;, over and over like a panic-control mantra. Guess what: the low-ringgit did absolutely zilch to drive up sales, and the spill-over demand from Singapore turned out to be a <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.straitstimes.com\/business\/property\/housing-market-struggles-amid-weak-interest\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">fantasy<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The arrival of Forest City is just a squeeze of lemon in an open wound. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Singaporeans who invested based on prime location (units nearer to Kuala Lumpur or where the future High Speed Rail will be) have some hope &#8211; no matter how many new units spring up, their property retains an advantage. However, Singaporeans who bought mass market properties in Iskandar with the hopes of garnering rental yields might want to start looking for an exit strategy.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>We might stand to benefit from an influx of Chinese tourism<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The idyllic kampungs along the south of Johor aren&#8217;t being bulldozed for no reason. There&#8217;s obviously a critical purpose: it&#8217;s to build high end luxury homes with designer shops, which most of the locals in the area will never be able to afford. But don&#8217;t worry, they\u2019ll probably get a complimentary tea bag or something.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A lot of the prospective buyers, who are flown in by the plane load, are from China. And assuming they&#8217;re the well-heeled crowd, they&#8217;d also have easy access to Singapore. That could be good for our increasingly moribund retail scene. It&#8217;s more customers for businesses, just from across the causeway.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Likewise, this means bigger crowds of Chinese tourists<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The High Speed Rail terminus will be in Jurong Gateway and the nearest causeway is the second link at Tuas. This is where the flood of tourists will arrive.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But I&#8217;m sure Singaporeans &#8211; particularly those in the Jurong area &#8211; understand that tourism is important, and that huge crowds of tourists raising the noise levels are a welcome addition to their quiet environment. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Good times ahead.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><b>Possible ecological havoc<\/b><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We don&#8217;t have much say in this project, since it was approved by Malaysian authorities, and it&#8217;s on their side of the fence. So far though, the project has been slated to alter tides, kill marine life, and <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.straitstimes.com\/asia\/se-asia\/reclaimed-forest-city-off-singapore-triggers-ecology-fears\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">ruin the Merambong Shoal<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. That&#8217;s according to activists, but there is also a strong counter argument of the developer having a lot of money.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Singapore is still &#8220;studying the impact&#8221;, but those who enjoy fishing activities in the area may have to find a new spot. <\/span><\/p>\n<h3><b>This is a long term project, and we don&#8217;t know if it will succeed<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The project is meant to be complete over 30 years, and while sales have been made on one of the first islands, we don&#8217;t know the entire thing is too ambitious. It&#8217;s plausible that half-way in, the developers will find out there&#8217;s insufficient demand and give up. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Whatever the case, it&#8217;s a reminder that sometimes a sure bet (like Iskandar) can have a lot of different ways to go south. <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Country Garden Holdings Co. is the developer behind Forest City. If you don&#8217;t know what that is, it&#8217;s a monstrous housing project that holds around 700,000 people, and is built on four interconnecting islands between Singapore and Johor. This is on the prediction that Johor will be &#8220;the next Shenzhen&#8221;. What does Forest City mean&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":54545,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_relevanssi_hide_post":"","_relevanssi_hide_content":"","_relevanssi_pin_for_all":"","_relevanssi_pin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_unpin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_include_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_exclude_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_no_append":"","_relevanssi_related_not_related":"","_relevanssi_related_posts":"","_relevanssi_noindex_reason":"","_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[53593,57131],"tags":[],"persona":[],"class_list":{"2":"type-post","9":"entry","10":"has-post-thumbnail"},"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- 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