Why sales of new executive condos have continued to remain strong

2016 has been a fairly encouraging year for Executive Condominiums (ECs), in comparison with 2015. According to preliminary estimates, 3,686 new executive condo units was launched during Sep 2015 – Jul 2016 and 3,590 new EC units was sold during the same period.

In fact for the first seven months of this year, 3,049 new EC units has been sold, which is more than full year sales volume  of 2,562 new executive condo units in 2015. The improvement was on the back of developers who continually cut prices of ECs in 2016. This actually started from H2 2015, where developers cut prices for unsold stock and new launches. Developers trimmed average EC prices from S$800 per square foot (psf) in the first half of 2015 and 2014, to S$780 psf or less from H2 2015.

A history of executive condo prices

It has been nearly six years since EC projects made a comeback in 2010. Executive condos are a private-public hybrid housing created to meet the needs of middle-income homeowners. From 2010 to H1 2013, the average launch price of an executive condo appreciated modestly from S$700 psf to S$750 psf. This increase was still acceptable as it was in sync with improving buyers’ sentiment for residential properties on the whole during that period.

However, developers raised prices of new ECs more steeply in H2 2013 as demand climbed following the implementation of the Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) framework in late June 2013. This is because a buyer’s existing HDB monthly mortgage payment will not be factored into TDSR calculations when a bank assesses the amount of loan to grant him on an EC unit. Executive condos were thus launched at an average price of about S$800 psf in H2 2013, up from an average of S$750 psf during the first half of that year.

As a result of its growing popularity (and rapid price increase), the authorities in December 2013 introduced a mortgage servicing ratio (MSR) cap, whereby monthly mortgage payments on loans for EC units are to be no more than 30 percent of a borrower’s gross monthly income.

Projects which adopt robust pricing strategies in 2016 move sales faster

Two executive condo projects stood out in 2016 in terms of number of sales – Treasure Crest and Wandervale. According to a developer sales survey in August, Treasure Crest sold 450 out of 504 units, while Wandervale sold 433 units out of 534 units.  

For Treasure Crest, volume of sales was mainly due to its attractive pricing, averaging in the mid $700 psf. It also triumphs Northwave, another EC in the the northeastern part of Singapore, in terms of branding because of its water-themed living concept. The same can be said for Wandervale, where competitive pricing (also launching at average of around $700 psf) proves to provide a strong comparative advantage.

Competitive pricing is the rule of the game for developers to sell their executive condo projects faster in 2016. This is because buyers remain very price sensitive, due to the enduring impact of the MSR cap for new EC purchases and constraints on property loans brought on by TDSR.

Sale status of EC projects currently on launch

Source: URA (Developer sale stats as at end of Aug 2016), R’ST Research

Likely price cuts for most EC projects in the remainder of 2016

Not all executive condo projects have cut prices. According to August’s developer sale survey, there were executive condo units sold in various projects at median prices exceeding $800 psf. They include The Brownstone, Westwood Residences and The Visionaire. However, we believe that there is a high possibility that for the remainder of 2016, developers will aggressively cut prices to between $730-$780 psf. By Dec 2016, it is unlikely there will be notable projects holding on to the $800 psf or more.

This is because such pricing ($750 psf or so), is well tried, tested and confirmed as a pricing benchmark for buyers. As evidenced according to market trends, units sold between $750-$780 psf has indeed encouraged buying interest.

Perhaps, it will be mostly developers who have sophisticated corporate positioning (especially those seasoned also in developing high end and city fringe private residential projects, like Frasers Centrepoint or City Developments type of ranks of developers) which can afford to resist cutting prices.

Yet, there is still a limit as to how willing buyers are to pay for a premium, because there are just too many EC choices available in market. There can be possibility that by end of 2016, even premium, sophisticated developers will eventually have to cut prices nearer to the year-end in order to clear substantial unsold stock. 

Effect of new income ceiling for ECs yet to manifest

The new monthly household income ceiling revision, raised from S$12,000 to S$14,000, for buying new ECs was announced in August. It was speculated that the higher ceiling can raise demand for new ECs, in part siphoned from new private condo sales. In reality, it has yet to gain momentum, Nonetheless, ss long as new EC projects are priced 20-25 percent below new 99-year private condos within the same location, there will still be a value proposition for ECs.

This article was written by Ong Kah Seng, Director of R’ST Research on behalf of 99.co

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