Q1 2019 Singapore Property Quarterly Report

Q1 2019 is over, and it’s time to look at some of the key numbers and details. Here’s what you need to note:

The Bigger Picture:

• Overall private home prices dipped 0.6 per cent
• The Core Central Region took the brunt of falling prices
• Resale flat prices may see some support in May
• There is some momentary relief as the Fed freezes rate hikes

1. Overall private home prices dipped 0.6 per cent

The 0.6 percent dip is for the second straight quarter, and follows a slide in resale volumes. Transactions are down to around 3,200 in Q1 2019, a 40 per cent decline from over 5,300 transactions a year ago.

The likely reason is the cooling measures introduced in July 2018, which are now starting to bite:

• The maximum LTV ratio has been  decreased from 80 per cent to 75 per cent. For a typical mass market condo in the $1 million range, this means an additional down payment of $50,000+.
• The ABSD has been increased, and is now at 20 per cent for foreign buyers. For Singapore citizens buying their second property, it stands at 12 per cent (and 15 per for the third and subsequent property). The higher ABSD is exerting downward pressure, as some investors seek cheaper alternatives, or wait in expectation of falling prices.

This can be further seen in how…

2. The Core Central Region took the brunt of falling prices

Prices in the Core Central Region (CCR) fell around three percentage points in Q1, faring significantly worse than other parts of Singapore. Private property prices in the Rest of Central Region (RCR) only edged down 0.2 per cent, while prices Outside of Central Region (OCR) managed to remain flat despite cooling measures.

We’re not surprised that the CCR is the worst hit, because the ABSD hurts investors – and a large number of CCR properties are not held by owner-occupiers, but by investors. Going forward, we expect this segment will continue to struggle; the ABSD compounds other problems such as a global economic slowdown, which often culminates in weaker rental rates and higher vacancies.

3. Resale flat prices may see some support in May

Resale flat prices continued their downward trend, sliding another 0.3 per cent this quarter to a seven-year low. This is in part due to worries about lease decay; but the the situation is also supply led.

According to Orange Tee & Tie, some 26,000 HDB flats may enter the resale market this year, having reached their Minimum Occupancy Period (MOP) in 2019.

However, we believe resale flat prices will see some support in May, when the government eases  CPF usage rules. Under the new regulations, it’s expected that buyers will be allowed to use their CPF to purchase flats even with 30 years or less on the lease. This will mitigate – though not remove – worries of lease decay.

We also believe some buyers will see a preference for resale units over ECs and mass market condos this year. One reason is that HDB loans are not affected by the cooling measures (see point 1), and don’t require a higher cash outlay due to a lower LTV.

4. There is some momentary relief as the Fed freezes rate hikes

Home loan rates have crept up to around a two per cent average, after 10-year historical lows. This is due to American Federal Reserve seeking to normalise interest rates after the Global Financial Crisis, and we’ve now been on the receiving end of nine rate hikes.

There is some temporary reprieve this year however, as the Fed has decided to freeze rate hikes in light of the global trade situation.

This is of limited consolation to investors however, as it’s evident that the days of cheap home loans are at an end. A one-year stay of execution will do little to make them forget the historical interest rate of home loans in Singapore (around four per cent per annum).

Condo numbers in Q1 2019:

The condo price scene in Q1 2019:

Average price of a condo in Singapore: Approx. $1,540 psf, with an average price of $1.575 million

Average price of a condo in CCR : Approx. $2,359 psf, with an average price of $2.57 million

Average price of a condo in RCR: Approx. $1,572  psf with an average price of $1.66 million

Average price of a condo in OCR: Approx. $1,258 psf  with an average price of $1.125 million

The condo rental scene in Q1 2019:

Average rental rate for a condo in Singapore: approx. $3,506 per month

Average rental rate for a CCR condo: approx. $4,969 per month

Average rental rate for an RCR condo: approx. $3,873 per month

Average rental rate for an OCR condo: approx. $2,474 per month

HDB Resale scene in Q1 2019:

Average price of a resale flat, in Singapore overall: $428,870

Approx. $299,000 for 3-room

Approx $425,275 for 4-room

Approx. $526,850 for 5-room

Average price of a central region resale flat:

Approx. $410,765 for 3-room

Approx. $712,310 for 4-room

Approx. $954,273 for 5-room

Average price of a resale flat in the north region:

Approx. $230,000 for 3-room

Approx. $319,000 for 4-room

Approx. $388,200 for 5-room

Average price of a resale flat in the north-east region:

Approx. $293,000 for 3-room

Approx. $406,000 for 4-room

Approx. $494,400 for 5-room

Average price of a resale flat in the east region:

Approx. $277,000 for 3-room

Approx. $384,120 for 4-room

Approx. $467,300 for 5-room

Average price of a resale flat in the west region:

Approx. $249,000 for 3-room

Approx. $345,300 for 4-room

Approx. $420,000 for 5-room

The HDB rental scene in Q1 2019:

Average rental rate for an HDB flat in Singapore: $1,966 per month

Approx. $1,742 per month for three-room

Approx. $2,025 per month for 4-room

Approx. $2,123 per month for 5-room

Average HDB rental rates in the north region:

Approx. $1,376 per month for three-room

Approx. $1,709 per month for 4-room

Approx. $1,832 per month for 5-room

Average HDB rental rates in the north-east region:

Approx. $1,659 per month for three-room

Approx. $1,924 per month for 4-room

Approx. $1,955 per month for 5-room

Average HDB rental rates in the east region:

Approx. $1,704 per month for three-room

Approx. $1,997 per month for 4-room

Approx. $2,121 per month for 5-room

Average HDB rental rates in the west region:

Approx. $1,628 per month for three-room

Approx. $1,948 per month for 4-room

Approx. $2,120 per month for 5-room

Most searched on 99.co:

Condo units for sale by district: District 15 (East Coast / Marine Parade)

Condo units for rent by district: District 9 (Orchard Road / River Valley), very closely followed by District 15 (East Coast / Marine Parade)

HDB units for sale by town: Tiong Bahru

HDB units for rent by town: Tiong Bahru

Most asked-about condo for sale: The Jovell

Most asked-about condo for rent: The Poiz Residences

Most searched school (for nearby housing): Anglo-Chinese Primary School, with Tao Nan School searched just six times less

Most searched MRT station (for nearby housing): Tiong Bahru

Highlight for the quarter:

Tiong Bahru is topping the public housing searches on 99.co. This is likely because of growing interest in resale flats. We’re currently seeing a seven year low in resale flat prices – and with the down payment increasing to 25 per cent for Executive Condominiums and private property, several of those buyers are now considering a resale flat instead.

Tiong Bahru ticks several of the boxes for these buyers. It’s in a gentrified neighbourhood with hipster appeal – an HDB area within walking distance of surprisingly high end, artisanal cafes and  niche boutiques. Can’t say we’re surprised that renters are interested too!

 

Find the home of your dreams today on Singapore’s largest property portal 99.co! You can also access a wide range of tools to calculate your down payments and loan repayments, to make an informed purchase.