Property market recovery? Why Feb 2017 might mark a turnaround

Private home sales (excluding Executive Condominiums) saw a big jump in February 2017, rising to 977 transactions from just 382 in January. This also marks an increase of 222.4 percent over February 2016. This has occurred even without the retraction of major cooling measures, such as the Additional Buyers’ Stamp Duty (ABSD), and may mark a turning point, and signs of a potential property market recovery.

The rundown of February’s sales

February 2017 saw the highest ever sales for that particular month since February 2012. The bulk of sales were made up by The Clement Canopy (207 units), followed by Parc Riviera (200 units). The other top sellers were The Santorini (51 units), The Glades (30 units), and The Venue Residences (28 units).

Among ECs, sales rose 78.8 percent from January, topped by Sol Acres (82 units), The Terrace (40 units), and The Visionaire (39 units).

These situations – where prices are mostly flat and yet transaction volumes shoot up – often cause excitement among developers and investors. They are often interpreted as a sign that the property market has bottomed out, and will soon start to head upward for a property market recovery. Singapore’s property market has fallen almost 11 percent from its peak in 2013, and prices have declined for 13 consecutive quarters on the back of government cooling measures.

The most important sign in February’s turnaround and signs of a property market recovery

To us, the most important sign in February’s turnaround is the time in which many of the units were launched. For example, none of the ECs that sold in February 2017 were newly launched; they were out on the market at least a month before. Likewise, in developments such as Parc Riviera, the units sold were also not new launches.

In fact, of the 977 total sales of private homes in February 2017, 770 were previous launches.

This suggests the spike in numbers is not just due to a number of new launches; it reflects broad-based demand, in which buying occurs across the board. This reflects a growing general demand, as opposed to just the outcome of new launches and their various promotions.

Are the latest rules tweaks the cause?

Recent rules tweaks have been cited as an influencing factor.

The first of these involves the shortening of the Seller Stamp Duty (SSD) to three years instead of four, as well as a reduction on the tax (the SSD is now 12 percent for selling on the first year, eight percent on the second year, and four percent on the third year).

The second of these is the removal of Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) requirements for home equity loans, provided they are at a Loan to Value (LTV) ratio of 50 percent or below.

While these do help certain property buyers, we do not believe they are the main cause of the spike in February. The shortening of the SSD is only of relevance to short term property investors and speculators, which still constitute the minority of buyers in Singapore.

The removal of the TDSR on home equity loans is of little impact as well; it is only meaningful to buyers who have mostly paid-up homes, and want to tap their home equity as a source of cheap funds (home equity loans are often just around one per cent per annum). Note that TDSR requirements have not changed for anyone seeking to buy a property.

We believe that, among the various policy measures in place, it is the ABSD and TDSR framework that place the greatest downward pressure on property sales.

February 2017’s spike may be a sign that homes are much more affordable. More buyers may be moving in as prices are low enough that, even with the TDSR, a good number of people can qualify for a home loan.

Some innovation in the home loans market has also helped here. With DBS and UOB introducing Fixed Deposit Rate Home Loans (FHR loans), buyers may be less nervous about the climbing SIBOR rates to which more traditional home loans are pegged.

What does this mean for you?

If you have been sitting on your property for a while, your patience may be about to pay off. If February 2017 is reflecting a genuine rise in demand, it won’t be long before a property market recovery. If you’re a buyer, it’s time to pay down the debt and start saving – you may want to make a move before long. The waiting game might be coming to a close.