Should you buy an executive condo for investment only?

There were 2,901 vacant executive condo units as of Q1 2016, 88.4 percent higher than the 1,540 recorded in the prior quarter, according to URA data. Currently, the executive condo vacancy rate stands at 14.3 percent. The increasing number of vacant units can be largely attributed to the increasing number of completed supply and the time lag between project completion and owners moving in.

However, it is plausible that some owners are buying executive condos purely for investment purposes, and are choosing to leave it empty during the MOP period. But, does it make more ‘cents’ for an eligible buyer to purchase an executive condo (leaving it empty during MOP) or a condominium unit, purely for investment purposes?

In a hypothetical scenario, we assume that a couple is looking to invest in either an executive or a private condo. They have another home (parents’ home perhaps) for occupation which is not under their name, and they plan to leave the executive condo unit empty during the MOP period. In today’s market, the median unit cost of an executive condo is S$783 psf. For a 1,100 square foot unit, the purchase price will be around S$861,000 while a comparable condo unit would cost an estimated S$1,075,000 assuming there is a 20% price gap between ECs and Condo. We assume they have a household income of $14,000 and take up a mortgage of 80% loan-to-value (LTV) for 25 years at a fixed rate of 2.5 percent per annum. Rents for the unit are fixed at S$3,000 per month over the period of 10 years. For simplification, other costs such as stamp duties, maintenance fees, taxes etc. have not been included in this example.

5 years after completion, we assume that the value of the condo has appreciated by 10 percent. Assuming the price gap between condos and ECs narrows to 9 percent upon fulfilment of MOP, the EC should have appreciated by 25 percent. Despite the superior capital appreciation that ECs enjoy in the first 5 years, the condo still outperforms the EC in the mid-term (5 years). This is because the rental income from the condo can be used to offset the monthly mortgage payments, whereas an EC cannot be fully rented out during the MOP.

Therefore, the EC investment incurs higher net holding costs in the first 5 years as compared to the private condo, and overwhelms the superior executive condo capital appreciation. However, at privatization, executive condos would outperform a private condo, assuming the condo appreciates by 20 percent and the price gap narrows further to 5 percent. After MOP, the couple can now rent out the entire EC, and mitigate their holding costs. With holding costs significantly defrayed by rental income, the capital appreciation effect in ECs can dominate. As such, the EC is now able to outperform the condo, 10 years after MOP.

According to the results above, it seems that buying an EC and leaving it empty for the first 5 years would be an inferior investment compared to buying a private condo and renting it out. Despite the higher condo price tag, net holding costs are lower due to rental income. However, in the longer term, the EC would prove to be a better investment. This is mainly due to the lower initial purchase price and the inflow of cash due to rental income (year 6 to year 10) as restrictions are lifted.

What’s available in the market?

Below is a snapshot of the EC landscape, with status of current and upcoming projects as at end of May 2016 broken down by their regions and planning areas based on data extracted on 8^th June 2016.

Article and research by OrangeTee.

NEW LAUNCH

Compare layouts, prices, and locations across Singapore’s newest developments.

Explore More New Launches