For once, prices are falling because of the ABSD – But you shouldn’t rush

The Additional Buyers Stamp Duty (ABSD) for developers was an attempt to moderate the housing market, and prevent speculation. Unless you ask property developers, in which case it was an attempt to cruelly deprive their CEO of an Audi. Either way, the ABSD may have become a source of discounts right now:

What is the ABSD for developers?

The ABSD for developers was implemented in December 2011. This imposed an additional tax of 10 per cent on land purchased by developers. In January 2013, the ABSD was increased to 15 per cent.

But if a developer is able to complete and sell all the units in the development within five years (four years for Executive Condominiums), the ABSD will be waived. Otherwise, the developer pays the ABSD with added interest of five per cent per annum.

Why would the government do that?

Timing the launch of a development is key to any developer’s strategy. The goal is to launch when property prices are rising, the closer to the peak the better.

But when the ABSD was imposed in 2011, the government wanted to discourage that. Prices were spiralling out of control at the time, and by getting developers to launch and sell off the units quickly, the increasing supply would moderate property prices (that was the theory anyway.)

The ABSD remains in place to prevent speculation. The government doesn’t want developers sitting on huge tracts of land, and holding back the supply of residential units in the name of bigger profits.

How is the ABSD causing discounts?

Due to sluggish sales over the past eight quarters, some developers are in danger of not meeting the five year ABSD deadline. This is due to a number of factors that kicked in following 2011:

• A later cooling measure, the Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) imposed tight loan restrictions on buyers. It became harder to finance the purchase of properties, and many buyers cancelled their plans to upgrade from flats to private housing.

• An ABSD was also imposed on property buyers. This was a whopping 15 per cent for foreigners, and less for Singapore citizens and Permanent Residents. This made many properties less attractive as an investment option.

• Mortgage rates, which are usually pegged to the Singapore Interbank Offered Rate (SIBOR) had been at historic lows since 2008.

From 2012 however, there were repeated rumours that the American Federal Reserve would raise interest rates (which would cause a commensurate rise in SIBOR) as the economy was recovering. This scared some investors away from the property market.

In the end the rate hike did come true, in December 2015. However, the impact has been more gradual than expected. Nonetheless, the prospect of more expensive mortgages continue to make some buyers keep their distance.

None of these problems have cleared up, or show any sign of doing so. The government has been adamant about maintaining the cooling measures, and the United States has not unwound its decision to gradually raise rates despite the current economic situation.

This leaves developers with two options: either find some way to incentivize buyers more (this usually means price discounts), or buy the units themselves (this may not be a cost effective option – developers will have to work out if the cost of buying the units is less than the cost of just paying the ABSD.)

In October 2015, developers requested that the Ministry of Finance (MOF) relax the five year deadline in view of the difficult property situation, but this was not granted.

Now, according to R’ST Research Director Ong Kah Seng, developers could end up paying up to $39.6 million in ABSD dues this year. This amount could increase to around $568 million in 2018.

How this creates a buyers’ market

As the developers move closer to the ABSD deadline, they are likely to start slashing prices. According to the Straits Times, affected properties include Kingsford@Hillview Peak (down to $1,288psf from $1,340 psf) and Mon Jervois (down to $1,853 psf from $2,087 psf.)

Even with prices falling, buyers are not yet eager to rush in. We are likely to see action toward the last quarter of 2016, when they are certain developers will be desperate to sell off remaining units.

How do you check if the price of your desired property is falling?

Here’s a quick and dirty way to do it, if all you have is Google and a calculator.

Pick the property you like, and select it on the URA website. Make sure you check the box marked “new sale”, and pick the period starting from January 2013 (because that’s as far back as it goes, but don’t worry. This will still suit our purpose.)

Click “next” to pull up the recorded transactions.

Now, find the median* price per square foot – you can just use the earliest month in 2013, and compare it to December 2015.

(*I suggest using the median and not the average, because one unusually expensive or cheap unit will skew the average.)

You will be able to see if the median price has been declining.

Finally, pull up the listings on 99.co and compare it to the current prices there. This will give you a sense of whether the property price is reaching its bottom. For example:

I looked up The Trilinq on the URA website, as this is one of the properties that has yet to sell off everything before the ABSD deadline. I can see the median prices are:

March 2013 – $1,544 psf

December 2015 – $1,379 psf

It is clear that the price has declined. Now, looking on 99.co, I can see a Trilinq listing for as low as $1,110 psf, but the median (based on 99.co listings) is still only slightly lower (around $1,340 psf).

I’d track this over the coming months, and buy when I see the price seems to have bottomed out. A good sign is when the price no longer moves much after three months*. In general, the looming deadline will mean units can only get cheaper over time, so there is no need to rush yet.

Note – you can even set up an alert on 99.co. That way we will email you when the price falls below a predetermined value.

(*Different investors, agents, etc. will have different methods to identify when a price has bottomed out, some of which are much more complex. This is a rough guideline only.)