Despite restrictions on in-person property viewing for most of the second quarter, both private home prices posted price gains for Q2 2020, according to data published by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) on 24 July.
Prices of private residential properties increased overall by 0.3% in Q2 2020, bucking a 0.9% decline in Q1. An exception to the price increase are properties in the Rest of Central Region (RCR), which posted a price decrease of 1.7%. “The price recovery in Q2 2020 was uneven,” noted Tricia Song, Head of Research for Singapore at Colliers International.
But it certainly was a very encouraging quarter for prime location properties in the Core Central Region (CCR).
Quarter-on-quarter, prices of non-landed property in the CCR increased 2.7% in Q2 2020, after registering a 2.5% fall in Q1.
This is surprising, given that most analysts had expected a continued decline for the CCR properties, given that this is the highest-end segment of private homes in Singapore that’s highly reliant on foreign buyer and renter demand.
But any worries about a drastic plunge in the value of high-end properties have so far been unfounded.
Prime location condo prices show immunity to a drop in transaction volume
More significantly, the robust performance of private home prices in the CCR in Q2 came despite a significant drop in transaction volume during that quarter. The percentage decrease in volume for the CCR is highest among the different segments:
| Units Sold | Core Central Region (CCR) | Rest of Central Region (RCR) | Outside Central Region (OCR) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Type | New Sale | Resale | New Sale | Resale | New Sale | Resale |
| Q1 2020 | 560 | 513 | 765 | 519 | 778 | 1,048 |
| Q2 2020 | 210 | 211 | 658 | 229 | 811 | 493 |
| % change | -63% | -59% | -14% | -56% | 4% | -53% |
Despite the decrease in transaction volume, the buoyant home prices in the CCR appear to hint at the strong holding power of homeowners there. The Singapore government has also helped avert fire sales from dictating a fall in property prices, by granting homeowners with outstanding mortgages the option to defer their home loan repayments until the end of the year—a move that helps to keep prices up.
We could see a ‘self-confirmation bias’ effect in the coming months: The stability of home prices in the higher-end property segment of Singapore reinforces the perception of these prime location properties as safe haven assets in times of crisis and economic uncertainty, like right now.
In other words, the Q2 increase in CCR home prices could prompt even more buyers to enter and further drive upward pressure in prices for the rest of 2020.
This is especially true for foreign buyers, whose numbers haven’t reduced as drastically as local buyers in Q2 2020, as the table below shows:
| Units Sold | Singaporeans | PRs and Foreigners |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2020 | 675 | 173 |
| Q2 2020 | 295 | 112 |
| % change | -56% | -35% |
In Q3, we foresee that overall property transaction volumes will continue to rebound. There are a handful of CCR condos slated to launch in 2020, and keen competition may keep prices from increasing further:
| Project Name | Location | District | Region | Type of Sale | Tenure | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Midtown Modern | Tan Quee Lan Street | 7 | CCR | GLS | 99-Year | Guocoland |
| The M | Middle Road | 7 | CCR | GLS | 99-year | Wing Tai |
| Cairnhill 16 | 16 Cairnhill Rise | 9 | CCR | En Bloc (Former Cairnhill Heights) | Freehold | Tiong Seng Holdings and Ocean Sky International |
| Jewel @ Killiney Orchard | 110 Killiney Road | 9 | CCR | En Bloc (Former Tai Wah Mansion) | Freehold | Lucrum Capital |
| Klimt Cairnhill | 69 Cairnhill Road | 9 | CCR | En Bloc (Former Cairnhill Mansions) | Freehold | Low Keng Huat |
| Kopar at Newton | Kampong Java Road | 9 | CCR | GLS | 99-year | Chip Eng Seng |
| The Atelier | 2 Makeway Ave | 9 | CCR | En Bloc (Former Makeway View) | Freehold | Bukit Sembawang Estates |
| The Avenir | 8 River Valley Close | 9 | CCR | En Bloc (Former Pacific Mansion) | Freehold | Guocoland & Hong Leong Realty |
| 15 Holland Hill | 15 Holland Hill | 10 | CCR | En Bloc (Former Olina Lodge) | Freehold | Peak Opal (Kheng Leong Group) |
| 19 Nassim | 19 Nassim Hill | 10 | CCR | En Bloc (Former Nassim Woods | 99-year | Keppel Land |
| Dalvey Haus | 105A Dalvey Road | 10 | CCR | En Bloc (Former Villa D’Este) | Freehold | KOP Properties |
| Former 14/14A Nassim Road bungalows | 14/14A Nassim Road | 10 | CCR | En Bloc | Freehold | Shun Tak Holdings |
| Former City Towers condo | 325 Bukit Timah Road | 10 | CCR | En Bloc (Former City Towers) | Freehold | Japura Development (Cheung Kong) |
| Former Park House | 21 Orchard Boulevard | 10 | CCR | En Bloc (Former Park House) | Freehold | Shun Tak Cuscaden Residential |
| Hyll on Holland | 95 Holland Road | 10 | CCR | En Bloc (Former Hollandia and The Estoril) | Freehold | Far East Consortium Properties and Koh Brothers |
| Leedon Green | 1-11 Farrer Road | 10 | CCR | En Bloc (Former Tulip Garden) | Freehold | Yanlord Land Group and MCL Land |
| Van Holland | 186 Holland Road | 10 | CCR | En Bloc (Former Toho Mansion) | Freehold | Koh Brothers |
| Peak Residence | 333 Thomson Road | 11 | CCR | En Bloc (Former Peak Court) | Freehold | Tuan Sing Holdings and Rich Capital Holdings |
Of the above, condos such as Van Holland, The Avenir, Leedon Green and Kopar @ Newton have already been launched. You can view the full list of new launch condos for the year here, or browse our listings to find out what’s available in Singapore’s prime districts right now.
Do you feel that prices are looking up for prime location condos? Let us know your comments below!
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About Kyle Leung
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Hey! It will drop by 10 to 20%. Bookmark my comment. Let’s bet! I guarantee u property will crop about 10% by next year.
Nothing unusual here. Same phenomenon in the UK and US. Two main reasons, the economic pain has been deferred, and most of the hardship has fallen on the poorest who aren’t in the market for prime condos. White collar workers are all safely ensconced at home, job secure, money coming in.